The Whole Affordability Thing
Affordability is a central campaign issue for most mayoral candidates. Is there any project in Denver that could put more money in people's pockets faster than building the VAMOS Shared Streets Network? Our analysis suggests that when we build VAMOS and biking places becomes possible for folks, households will have the potential to save as much as $30,000 over five years.
Let’s Break it Down
We've already established that getting around Denver on a bicycle is not inclusive nor, on the current trajectory, will it be any time in the near future.
The existing infrastructure isn't safe enough for people who are "interested but concerned," jargon for, "wanna bike, but don't feel safe." This includes children, marginalized communities, and older folks.
Our analysis looks at how much money families could save (or spend on housing) if biking were inclusive.
Most candidates talk about affordability in terms of housing prices, but it's hard to imagine any mayor snapping their fingers and lowering home prices in Denver. That's a complex, long-term supply and demand problem that requires tons of construction vastly outpacing the rate at which people are moving to Denver.
But if we build the VAMOS Shared Streets Network, which can happen in the next 6 months, and make it possible for people to go places by bike, folks will have more money to redirect to housing (or save.)
Our analysis makes assumptions, most notably that by creating access, market forces lead people to make certain decisions. Not everyone will make all of these choices, but here's what's possible.
Let's start with health. On average, folks in the Western US spend an hour a day in their cars. Imagine how much healthier we'd be if a big chunk of that time were spent getting around by bike. Annual family health savings per year, based on a 2011 study, could be nearly $3,000. Beyond the cold hard economics, making it easier for people to be healthier is just the right thing to do.
Gas savings would be nearly $600 in Year 1.
Similarly, car maintenance costs could go down by $400 in Year 1.
A big opportunity, of course, is in selling a car (or not buying a new one.) The average cost of a used car in Colorado in August was $34,787. (?!???!) We used $10,000 to be conservative.
Of course, biking ain't free, so we factored in the cost of buying bikes, helmets, and maintenance.
All told, with VAMOS it seems plausible for families to save $30,000 or more over five years. Contrast that with the pandemic relief checks people received of $1,200 and $600 per person. Candidates, y'all hear?
Check out the model. Economist friends and spreadsheet jockeys, let us know how to make it better. Other items for future consideration: hidden costs like improvements in local air quality, opportunity costs like the time parents can save in a Denver where they don't have to drive their kids everywhere, and out-of-pocket health care costs vs. what insurance covers.